Brazil began 2026 C.E. with one of the cleanest large-scale electricity systems on Earth. As of January 1, 2026 C.E., renewables made up 84.6% of the country’s 215.9 gigawatts of installed generation capacity, according to Brazil’s national energy regulator ANEEL — nearly four times the global average of 14.2%. The milestone arrives not as a sudden leap but as the visible result of decades of investment, now accelerating into offshore wind, green hydrogen, and a new national carbon market.
At a glance
- Renewable energy capacity: As of January 1, 2026 C.E., Brazil’s grid carries 215.9 GW of total installed capacity, with renewables accounting for 84.6% — hydropower at 47.6%, onshore wind at 16.1%, and large-scale solar at 9.3%.
- Solar power growth: Cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity reached 68 GW by early 2026 C.E., including roughly 46 GW of rooftop distributed generation — up from under 1 GW in 2018 C.E., per the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
- Green hydrogen investment: The Pecém Industrial and Port Complex in Ceará has attracted agreements potentially worth up to USD 18 billion from Fortescue alone, backed by USD 134 million in World Bank financing approved in July 2025 C.E.
Wind and solar reach a new threshold
In August 2025 C.E., wind and solar together generated more than one-third of Brazil’s electricity in a single month for the first time — producing a record 19 TWh, enough to power roughly 119 million average Brazilian homes. That figure represents a structural shift, not a seasonal quirk.
Onshore wind added 1.82 GW across 43 new farms in 2025 C.E., bringing cumulative capacity to roughly 29.6 GW. Wind generation reached 107.7 TWh in 2024 C.E., up 12.4% year-on-year, per the Brazilian Energy Research Agency (EPE). The Northeast — Bahia, Rio Grande do Norte, Ceará, and Piauí — hosts most installations, where wind speeds of 7–10 meters per second yield capacity factors that consistently exceed international averages.
One strategic advantage rarely mentioned outside Brazil: wind generation peaks between June and November, precisely when hydroelectric reservoirs run low. That seasonal fit gives the grid a natural buffer without requiring battery storage. EPE projects wind will supply 16% of the national electricity mix by 2029 C.E. The Dom Inocêncio project — an 828 MW facility in Piauí where Casa dos Ventos has ordered more than 100 Vestas turbines — begins construction in 2026 C.E. and targets commissioning in 2028 C.E.
Brazil is also among the clean energy milestones tracked globally, and is currently the only G20 country on track to meet the COP28 goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030 C.E.
Solar’s rooftop revolution
Solar is the grid’s fastest-growing technology. Distributed generation — rooftop panels on homes, businesses, and rural properties — drove most of the expansion, enabled by Brazil’s Distributed Generation Legal Framework (Law 14,300/2022 C.E.). Distributed capacity climbed from under 1 GW in 2018 C.E. to 40 GW by mid-2025 C.E., accounting for 43% of all electricity capacity additions over that period. More than 3.7 million distributed generation systems are now installed nationwide.
Utility-scale solar added 2.81 GW across 63 new plants in 2025 C.E. ANEEL forecasts centralized solar additions of 4.95 GW in 2026 C.E. — nearly double the 2025 C.E. figure — as grid investment catches up with generation. The Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association (Absolar) projects USD 5.8 billion in solar investment in 2026 C.E. alone, and cumulative PV capacity is on track to exceed 75.9 GW by year’s end.
Growth has not been frictionless. In November 2025 C.E., roughly 28% of all curtailed energy came from photovoltaic plants — a sign that transmission infrastructure has not kept pace with generation. The government responded with Provisional Measure 1304 (2025 C.E.), establishing compensation mechanisms and directing the grid operator ONS to implement clearer curtailment protocols. Two major transmission auctions are planned for 2026 C.E., with total grid investment through 2030 C.E. estimated at up to BRL 120 billion.
Offshore wind and green hydrogen: the next frontier
Brazil has no offshore wind capacity in operation today, but its pipeline is among the largest in the world. IBAMA, the federal environmental agency, is reviewing 104 licensing requests covering more than 247 GW of combined capacity. The World Bank estimates Brazil’s total offshore wind technical potential at 1,200 GW — 480 GW fixed-bottom and 748 GW floating. Law No. 15,097, passed in January 2025 C.E., established the regulatory basis for licensing and concessions. In April 2026 C.E., the National Energy Policy Council approved guidelines including a 12 nautical-mile baseline reference for offshore areas. Economic projections estimate the sector could generate up to 516,000 jobs and contribute R$902 billion to GDP by 2050 C.E.
Green hydrogen is Brazil’s other long-horizon bet. The Pecém Industrial and Port Complex in Ceará — a collaboration between the Pecém Complex, the Federation of Industries of Ceará, and the Federal University of Ceará — is the country’s flagship hub. The World Bank approved USD 134 million in financing for the hub in July 2025 C.E. Fortescue has signed agreements potentially worth up to USD 18 billion, with final investment decisions targeted by 2026 C.E. and production by end-2027 C.E. Six other companies have also signed pre-contracts at Pecém.
Supply corridors are already taking shape. Pecém has signed green hydrogen corridor agreements with the Port of Rotterdam, duisport in Duisburg, and the Port of Rostock in Germany. A separate RMI pre-feasibility study presented in late 2025 C.E. identified the Port of Açu–Antwerp corridor as a high-potential e-fuel export route, with operations targeted between 2030 C.E. and 2035 C.E. Multiple export analyses suggest Brazil could supply up to 40% of Europe’s green hydrogen demand by 2040 C.E.
Investment and the road ahead
Brazil recorded its highest foreign direct investment inflow since 2014 C.E. last year, with USD 84.1 billion entering between January and November 2025 C.E. Renewable energy and green hydrogen together accounted for roughly 34% of that total, per Brazil’s Central Bank and Development Ministry. Industrial Info Resources is tracking more than 1,900 renewable and energy storage projects worth over USD 629 billion.
Petrobras is threading a complex needle — maintaining oil and gas output while scaling clean energy. Its 2025–2029 business plan dedicates USD 16.3 billion (up 41%) to energy transition, including hydrogen, biorefining, and carbon capture. The company secured Brazil’s first-ever preliminary offshore wind license in June 2025 C.E. for a 24.5 MW pilot project off Rio de Janeiro, and is evaluating up to 14.5 GW of additional offshore capacity through its partnership with Equinor.
Brazil’s regulated carbon market — the SBCE, established by Law 15,042/2024 C.E. — is entering implementation. ICC Brasil analysis projects demand for Brazilian carbon credits could grow by up to 530% from 2030 C.E. onwards as the system matures under Paris Agreement Article 6 mechanisms.
The remaining challenge is structural. Hydropower still anchors 47.6% of installed capacity, and drought years have pushed fossil fuel backup from 6% to as high as 26% of monthly generation. Climate change makes that risk harder to plan around. Battery storage is nearly absent at utility scale — the first dedicated BESS auction, with 18 GW of registered projects, was only scheduled for April 2026 C.E. Brazil’s clean energy story is genuinely impressive; its durability depends on solving the grid’s vulnerability to rainfall and its shortage of storage. For readers tracking offshore wind regulation and energy transitions globally, Brazil’s next five years will be as instructive as its last thirty.
Read more
For more on this story, see: Rio Times Online — Brazil Renewable Energy 2026 Guide
For more from Good News for Humankind, see:
- Wind and solar power over one-third of Brazil’s electricity
- Britain runs its electricity grid on zero-carbon power for a record stretch
- The Good News for Humankind archive on Brazil
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