China’s clean tech exports hit a record this year, according to a new report, and the climate payoff looks large. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a Finland-based research group, estimates that this year’s exports will avoid about 450 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) a year once installed. That is roughly what Brazil emits in a year.
At a glance
- Avoided emissions: CREA estimates that exports shipped this year will avoid about 450 million metric tons of CO2 a year outside China once they are installed or deployed.
- Export growth: In the first nine months of 2026 C.E., exports of electric vehicles rose 61 percent, wind turbines 45 percent, batteries 39 percent, and solar equipment 22 percent from a year earlier.
- Lifetime total: Over the life of that equipment, CREA estimates about 8,400 million metric tons of CO2 avoided, after subtracting the emissions from making it.
What the analysis found
CREA’s Lauri Myllyvirta wrote the analysis for Carbon Brief. He told the Associated Press, “This is a pivot point for the outlook of global energy and global emissions.” The 450 million metric ton figure counts only emissions avoided outside China.
That is nearly 2 percent of global emissions outside China, Carbon Brief reports. An earlier Carbon Brief analysis put the share for 2024 at about 1 percent. The share has roughly doubled in two years.
Over the equipment’s life, this year’s exports would avoid about 8,400 million metric tons of CO2. That assumes export trends continue through December.
CREA assumes solar and wind equipment lasts 20 years, and cars and batteries last 10. The Associated Press notes that this total is about 24 percent of annual global emissions. That is more than the United States and India emit combined.
Where the equipment is going
Southeast Asia is a major destination. China’s clean energy exports to the region rose nearly 160 percent over last year through September, according to Ember, an independent energy think tank. Euronews reports that Ember and Atlas Public Policy supplied some of the data behind the analysis.
The Iran war’s shipping disruptions hit import-dependent Asian countries first and hardest. Households there pay more for electricity and fuel, and many are choosing rooftop solar. Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam have offered incentives for solar panels and electric vehicles.
The Philippines became the second-largest destination for Chinese solar exports in the first quarter. Electric vehicle exports reached $72.8 billion in the first nine months of the year, according to Atlas Public Policy. Exports to the U.S. rose 13 percent from January through September, despite higher tariffs.
How China’s clean tech exports were counted
The analysis is a model, not a measurement. CREA starts with export data and the power systems of the countries receiving the equipment. It also counts the emissions from making the products in China.
Carbon Brief explains that each exported unit of generating capacity is assumed to replace power from the grid of its destination country. Figures for the last three months of the year are extended from growth in the first three quarters. So the totals depend on current trends holding.
What the estimate does not settle
Independent experts told the Associated Press that the estimate is in line with the scale of China’s exports. They were unable to validate the data. Carbon Brief also flags weak spots, such as the oil that electric two-wheelers displace.
China is still the world’s largest source of carbon emissions. Avoided emissions from China’s clean tech exports do not cancel what China itself emits. Carbon Brief adds that China’s pledge to stop building new coal power abroad has gaps, especially for coal plants tied to industrial projects in Indonesia.
Why it matters
The Associated Press calls the result a small sign of progress while global climate efforts fall short. Turkey hosts the annual U.N. climate talks in November, where electrification is likely to be a top topic. Yu Sun Chin of Zero Carbon Analytics says interest in clean energy is likely to last after the war.
Read more
For more on this story, see: Carbon Brief
For more from Good News for Humankind, see:
- Renewables overtake coal in global electricity mix for a full year for the first time
- Solar’s 2025 growth is the largest ever recorded for any energy source
- The Good News for Humankind archive on clean energy
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