For the first time in American history, renewable energy is on track to generate more electricity than coal in a single month — a milestone that would have seemed impossible just a few years ago. According to a report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that renewables are set to beat coal’s output in April 2019 C.E.
At a glance
- Renewable energy milestone: Hydro, wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal combined are projected to generate more electricity than coal for a full month for the first time, in April 2019 C.E.
- Coal’s declining share: Coal’s portion of U.S. power generation fell from 45% in 2010 C.E. to 28% in 2018 C.E., and the EIA projected it would drop further to 24% by 2020 C.E.
- Wind and solar costs: Prices for wind and solar have dropped so sharply that 74% of the U.S. coal fleet could be replaced by renewable energy while still saving customers money, according to Energy Innovation, a nonpartisan think tank.
How fast things have changed
A decade before this milestone, American renewable energy was barely a presence outside of hydropower. Then came a sustained wave of investment — first into wind, then solar — that made both technologies dramatically cheaper and increasingly competitive with every other source on the grid.
“Five years ago this never would have been close to happening,” Dennis Wamstead, a research analyst at IEEFA, told CNN. “The transition that’s going on in the electric sector in the United States has been phenomenal.”
That shift is showing up clearly in the numbers. U.S. coal consumption fell about 4% in 2018 C.E. to its lowest level since 1979 C.E., according to EIA data. At the same time, renewable energy is projected to be the fastest-growing source of power generation for at least two years running — a trend driven by economics as much as by environmental demand.
The economics of an aging fleet
Coal’s challenges go beyond competition from cleaner sources. The average U.S. coal plant is about 40 years old, according to Wamstead — right at the edge of a typical 40-to-60-year lifespan. As plants age, maintenance costs rise, making the economics of renewable alternatives even more attractive by comparison.
“A lot of plants are staring normal retirement age right in the face,” Wamstead said.
Some utilities aren’t waiting. Xcel Energy, a Minneapolis-based power company, has already shut down a quarter of its coal plants and plans to retire another quarter. The company announced a goal to deliver zero-carbon electricity by 2050 C.E. Xcel CEO Ben Fowke put it plainly: “Wind is already beating fossil fuel alternatives — even with low natural gas prices.”
Stories like Xcel’s are part of a broader wave of clean energy milestones reshaping power grids across the country and around the world. The driving force is simple: wind and solar have become the cheaper option in a growing number of markets, regardless of policy.
A milestone with an asterisk
Context matters here. April tends to be a weak month for coal partly because some plants shut down for scheduled maintenance when overall electricity demand is low. Spring also brings stronger output from hydro and wind sources, giving renewables a seasonal boost they don’t always enjoy in summer or winter.
The IEEFA report is clear that renewables aren’t expected to surpass coal on an annual basis for at least several more years. What April 2019 C.E. would represent is a proof of concept — a demonstration that the crossover is no longer hypothetical. It’s a matter of when, not whether.
“Renewables are just a better bet at the moment,” Wamstead said.
Coal was already dethroned as America’s top power source in 2016 C.E., when natural gas surpassed it. Now coal faces intensifying pressure from wind and solar simultaneously — technologies that are cheaper to build, faster to deploy, and increasingly favored by the businesses, households, and state legislatures driving electricity demand.
Read more
For more on this story, see: CNN Business — America’s renewable energy set to surpass coal for the first month ever
For more from Good News for Humankind, see:
- When renewables overtook coal as a U.S. electricity source
- Brazil’s wind and solar now supply a third of its electricity
- The Good News for Humankind archive on clean energy
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