Nine U.S. states have signed a memorandum of understanding to dramatically expand heat pump adoption, setting a target for heat pumps to represent 65 percent of residential heating, cooling, and water heating equipment sales by 2030 — and 90 percent by 2040.
At a glance
- Heat pump agreement: California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Rhode Island signed the MOU, coordinated by the nonprofit air quality association NESCAUM.
- Air pollution reduction: Fossil-fueled heating equipment across the nine states currently produces more than 138,000 tons of nitrogen oxide and 6,000 tons of fine particulate matter each year.
- Industry support: Companies including Schneider Electric, Siemens, Ikea, eBay, and major HVAC manufacturers Trane and Carrier signed a letter of support for the agreement.
Why heat pumps matter
Buildings account for more than a third of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions globally. In the U.S., fossil fuel combustion in buildings produces more smog-forming nitrogen oxide emissions than power plants do — making building electrification one of the most direct levers states have on air quality and public health.
Heat pumps are more energy-efficient alternatives to traditional heating and cooling systems. Because they run on electricity, they can draw on renewable sources like wind and solar as grids get cleaner — meaning the emissions benefits compound over time rather than locking in a fixed level of pollution.
Residential heat pumps already surpassed gas furnace sales for the first time in 2022 C.E., making up 53 percent of sales that year. This agreement aims to accelerate that trend across nearly a third of U.S. states at once.
What the agreement does
The MOU, spearheaded by the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), sets shared market-share targets and commits the states to developing an action plan to “support widespread electrification of residential buildings.” It is not legally binding — each state will need to develop its own policies, incentives, or programs to hit the targets.
“Even though it’s not legally binding, it does plant a flag and set a strong shared target that states are collectively moving in this direction,” said Emily Levin, senior policy advisor at NESCAUM.
The agreement also includes an equity commitment: states will strive to direct at least 40 percent of new investments in efficiency and electrification upgrades for residential buildings to low-income households and disadvantaged communities. New York City had already moved in this direction, beginning to roll out heat pumps in public housing buildings as part of a $263 million plan prioritizing low-income renters.
A state-led push as federal policy shifts
State-led climate efforts like this one sit within a broader pattern of clean energy milestones building from the ground up, even as federal policy direction shifts. President Biden invoked the Defense Production Act in 2022 C.E. to boost domestic production of heat pumps and other clean energy technologies, but state governments have increasingly driven building decarbonization policy — in part because bans on new gas hookups have faced fierce industry opposition at the local level.
Maryland Secretary of Environment Serena McIlwain told The Verge that industry backing makes a meaningful difference. “Heat pumps and building electrification is really the future for healthier homes and a thriving green economy,” she said. “The fact that we have the support from industry really makes a big difference.”
That industry support is significant. Corporate signatories to the letter of support cited climate risk to supply chains and communities, and argued that stronger state building decarbonization policies would help companies “meet both business and state goals faster and more cost-effectively, all while reducing climate-related health and safety risks.”
Heat pump technology is scaling rapidly at an international level too, with the International Energy Agency tracking accelerating adoption across Europe and Asia. One example: Helsinki built the world’s largest air-to-water heat pump system to heat its urban district network — an indication of just how far the technology can scale when policy and investment align.
The honest limits
The non-binding nature of the MOU is a real constraint. Without enforceable mandates or sustained funding, ambitious market-share targets can stall — particularly in states where utility structures, building codes, or political climates make electrification harder to advance. And 65 percent market share by 2030 leaves roughly six years to more than double the current share in several of these states, a pace that will require sustained policy follow-through, not just a shared aspiration.
Still, collective signals from large states carry weight with manufacturers, distributors, and investors planning production capacity and supply chains years in advance. As energy efficiency researchers have noted, market transformation often begins with exactly this kind of coordinated expectation-setting before binding rules follow.
Read more
For more on this story, see: The Verge
For more from Good News for Humankind, see:
- Helsinki builds the world’s largest air-to-water heat pump
- Frank Shuman’s solar thermal power plant in Egypt
- The Good News for Humankind archive on climate progress
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