Kigali HFC deal gives the world its best shot at slowing climate change

Story: 2016 C.E.  |  Last updated: October 15, 2016

In the early hours of October 15, 2016 C.E., negotiators packed into a conference center in Rwanda’s capital reached an agreement that scientists say could do more to slow planetary warming than almost any other single action taken to that point. More than 170 nations signed on to phase down hydrofluorocarbons — the Kigali HFC deal was done.

Key findings

• Kigali HFC deal: The legally binding accord, finalized under the Montreal Protocol framework, commits nations to dramatically reducing production and use of hydrofluorocarbons, chemical coolants found in air-conditioners and refrigerators worldwide.
• Hydrofluorocarbon potency: HFCs trap heat at roughly 1,000 times the rate of carbon dioxide, meaning even a modest reduction in their use translates into an outsized benefit for the global climate.
• Differentiated timelines: Wealthier nations agreed to freeze HFC production first, while developing nations — many in hotter climates where air conditioning is increasingly essential — received longer phase-down schedules, with some African nations voluntarily choosing faster timelines.

What HFCs are and why they matter

Hydrofluorocarbons were themselves a solution once. They replaced ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) after the 1987 Montreal Protocol targeted those chemicals. HFCs don’t damage the ozone layer — but they turned out to be extraordinarily potent heat-trappers.

As incomes rise across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, demand for air conditioning and refrigeration is climbing fast. More cooling units means more HFCs. Without intervention, scientists projected HFC emissions could account for a significant share of global warming by mid-century. The math made action urgent.

Secretary of State John Kerry, speaking to fellow negotiators in Kigali, called the deal “likely the single most important step we could take at this moment to limit the warming of our planet.” President Obama described it as “an ambitious and far-reaching solution to this looming crisis.”

Seven years in the making

The agreement didn’t happen quickly. Negotiations began around 2009 C.E. and stretched through seven years of diplomatic tension between industrialized nations — which had built their economies in part on cheap refrigerant technology — and developing nations worried about the cost of switching to alternatives before those alternatives were affordable.

The compromise that emerged was tiered. The United States, the European Union, and other wealthy nations committed to begin freezing HFC use by 2018 C.E. Most developing nations had until 2024 C.E. or 2028 C.E. to begin their phase-down. A small group of the hottest and fastest-growing nations — including India, Pakistan, and several Gulf states — received the longest runway, with reductions beginning in 2028 C.E.

The fact that it happened at all, under one legal framework, with near-universal participation, was itself remarkable. The Montreal Protocol — the existing treaty that the Kigali Amendment extended — is widely regarded as the most successful international environmental agreement in history, having effectively healed the ozone layer over decades.

Lasting impact

Analysts at the time estimated the Kigali HFC deal could prevent up to 0.5 degrees Celsius of global warming by 2100 C.E. — a meaningful fraction of the 1.5-degree target that climate scientists say is critical to avoiding the worst consequences of climate disruption.

The deal also accelerated global investment in alternative refrigerants and cooling technologies. Manufacturers had a clear signal: the old chemicals had an expiration date. That signal pushed innovation in energy-efficient cooling faster than it might otherwise have moved, with knock-on benefits for electricity consumption and grid pressure in rapidly urbanizing regions.

For the African nations that signed on early and chose accelerated timelines, the agreement also signaled something important: that countries most vulnerable to climate change were willing to lead, not just wait for wealthy nations to act first. Rwanda’s role as host — a nation with minimal historical emissions — gave the accord a moral weight that the text alone couldn’t carry.

The deal also demonstrated that international climate diplomacy could still produce binding commitments. Coming just months after the Paris Agreement entered into force, Kigali showed that the Paris accord wasn’t a ceiling — it was a floor.

Blindspots and limits

The Kigali Amendment is a phase-down, not a phase-out. HFCs will remain in use for decades, and enforcement depends on national implementation — a perennial weakness of international environmental law. Some of the alternative refrigerants now replacing HFCs, while far less potent as greenhouse gases, come with their own questions around safety, flammability, and toxicity that researchers are still working through. And the cooling demand driving all of this — in a warming world, people need more air conditioning, which uses more energy, which can produce more emissions — remains a fundamental tension that no single chemical agreement fully resolves. The long-term success of the deal depends on continued political will and the parallel work of decarbonizing the electricity grids that power all those cooling systems.

Read more

For more on this story, see: The New York Times

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• Renewables now make up at least 49% of global power capacity
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• The Good News for Humankind archive on environment

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