For the first time in history, China’s combined wind and solar capacity has surpassed coal — a milestone that would have seemed impossible just a decade ago. As of June 2024 C.E., data from China’s National Energy Administration confirms the crossover, and analysts say the gap will only widen from here.
At a glance
- China renewable energy: Wind and solar installations hit a record 293 GW in 2023 C.E. alone — three to four times the capacity added by coal in the same period.
- Solar power surge: New analysis from Rystad Energy projects that by 2026 C.E., solar alone will exceed coal as China’s primary energy source, reaching 1.38 terawatts of cumulative capacity.
- Coal additions falling: China added roughly 40 GW of coal power in 2023 C.E., but that figure dropped to just 8 GW in the first half of 2024 C.E. — a sharp reversal.
How China got here
The numbers are almost hard to absorb. Since 2020 C.E., China has installed more than 100 GW of wind and solar every single year. In 2023 C.E., it broke its own record with 293 GW installed — more new clean energy capacity than many countries have in total.
China is now on track to reach 1,200 GW of installed wind and solar capacity by the end of 2024 C.E. That’s six years ahead of Beijing’s own target, set under its national climate commitments.
The country also leads the world by a wide margin in clean energy construction. It currently has roughly twice as much renewable capacity under development as the rest of the world combined, according to the International Energy Agency.
What the shift means for emissions
The implications go well beyond capacity statistics. Energy risk firm DNV forecasts that China’s power mix will shift from about 30% renewables today to 88% by mid-century. In its modeling, DNV projects China will cut annual emissions by 8 gigatons between now and 2050 — three times the scale of Europe’s projected reductions over the same period.
Simeng Deng, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy, put the moment plainly: “We’re at a pivotal moment for both China and the global energy transition. Solar energy will be central to this transformation, with advancements in supply chains, infrastructure and capacity additions set to surpass coal in future energy production.”
Electricity generation from coal in China actually declined year-on-year in both May and June of 2024 C.E., as renewables picked up the slack. That’s a signal the capacity shift is starting to show up in real-world output — not just on paper.
The uneven road ahead
The transition is real, but it isn’t seamless. One persistent challenge is geography. Ten eastern and southern provinces consume roughly half of China’s electricity but produce only 40% of its generation — meaning power often has to travel vast distances from wind-rich western regions to demand centers in the east. Building the grid infrastructure to close that gap is an ongoing and expensive task.
Coal is also not disappearing overnight. China remains the world’s largest coal consumer, and domestic mining actually increased 3.9% year-on-year in June 2024 C.E. The IEA notes that eased safety inspections could boost coal output further in the near term. The milestone of renewables overtaking coal in capacity is historic — but capacity and actual generation are different things, and coal still generates a large share of China’s electricity today.
Still, the direction is clear. When the world’s largest energy consumer reaches a crossover point like this, the global math on climate begins to change.
Read more
For more on this story, see: Splash247
For more from Good News for Humankind, see:
- Renewables now make up at least 49% of global power capacity
- Alzheimer’s risk cut in half by drug in landmark prevention trial
- The Good News for Humankind archive on renewable energy
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