China commits to an absolute target to cut its emissions for the first time

China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is showing that massive clean energy investment can successfully reduce its reliance on fossil fuels. Recent data confirms a significant and sustained drop in the nation’s carbon dioxide (CO2​) output. In the first half of 2025, CO2​ emissions fell by 1% year-on-year, extending a downward trend that began in March 2024. This notable shift is primarily driven by an unprecedented surge in solar and wind power, establishing a tangible foundation for future climate action.

Record Clean Energy Outpaces Demand

The most powerful driver of this trend is the exponential growth of clean electricity. In the first half of 2025, clean power generation, led by solar and wind, outstripped the nation’s rising electricity demand. China added a massive 212 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity in the first six months of the year, setting a new annual record for growth. This phenomenal pace meant that this clean generation surge provided enough power to cut fossil fuel use in the power sector by 2% compared with the previous year. This rapid energy buildout is a major accomplishment, demonstrating that rapid installation can directly translate into lower emissions in the energy sector.

A Commitment Met with Skepticism

This clean energy momentum provided the basis for a key policy announcement. For the first time, China has committed to an absolute target to cut its greenhouse gas emissions. President Xi Jinping pledged that China would reduce its greenhouse gas emissions across the economy by 7-10% below peak levels by 2035. While this is a significant move away from targets based only on economic intensity, the pledge has been met with criticism. Many experts and climate analysts argue that the target is too conservative. They state that the reduction is achievable with policies already in place and does not represent a true increase in ambition necessary to limit global warming to 1.5∘C.

The Challenge of Industrial Expansion

The main reason for this criticism lies in the continued growth of emissions outside the power sector. While CO2​ from electricity generation is declining, the industrial sector, particularly coal-to-chemicals, continues to pose challenges. New coal power capacity is still being added, and the use of coal for synthetic fuels and chemicals is expanding rapidly. Analysts point out that to align with global climate goals, China would need to cut emissions by 30% or more from recent peak levels, making the 7-10% target appear insufficient. This ongoing industrial expansion complicates China’s goal to peak emissions before 2030 and reach net zero by 2060.

Global Supply Chain Dominance

Despite the criticism of its targets, China’s role as the global powerhouse of clean technology remains a massive positive. The nation manufactures over 90% of the world’s solar modules and 80% of its wind turbines. This scale has drastically lowered the cost of solar and wind power worldwide, directly accelerating the energy transition in other countries. This industrial might provides security and affordability for clean energy projects globally. Recognizing the need to manage its domestic infrastructure, China is also strategically strengthening its national power grid, with investment increasing by 22% in the first half of 2025. This focus on grid modernization is essential for safely integrating the growing influx of variable clean power.

A Call for Greater Ambition

China’s ability to achieve a decline in CO2​ emissions through market forces and clean energy deployment is an inspiring signal for emerging economies. It proves that decarbonization can accompany economic growth. However, experts from the Climate Action Tracker emphasize that the current target is an opportunity lost to set a genuinely transformative goal. The announced target should be viewed as a floor, not a ceiling. The true measure of success will be whether policymakers use the current market momentum to set significantly more ambitious goals in their next Nationally Determined Contribution, rather than relying on targets that are already being met.

• This commitment is viewed as an important development for global climate action. You can find more information on this new direction from Carbon Brief.
• You can review detailed data on this manufacturing dominance from reports by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
• Further details on the country’s economic and energy planning can be found in the IEA’s overview of China’s Five-Year Plan.
• You can monitor the rapid energy changes in China through analysis from the energy think tank Ember.