In the first half of 2023 C.E., the European Union hit a milestone that few energy analysts predicted would come so soon: fossil fuels generated just 33% of the bloc’s electricity, the lowest share on record. Coal collapsed by 23% year-on-year. Gas fell by 13%. And 17 E.U. countries set records for their highest-ever share of renewable power in a single six-month period.
At a glance
- Fossil fuel electricity: Coal and gas together generated 410 terawatt hours — down 86 TWh, or 17%, compared with the first half of 2022 C.E., according to energy analysts Ember.
- Solar generation: Output grew 13% across the E.U., with Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands among the countries posting strong gains — and rooftop solar likely undercounting the true scale of expansion.
- Renewable milestones: Greece and Romania both crossed 50% renewables for the first time; Denmark and Portugal both surpassed 75%, with wind and solar alone covering more than half of Portugal’s electricity in April and May.
How the numbers broke down
The drop in fossil fuel use was widespread, not concentrated in a handful of countries. Eleven E.U. member states saw fossil generation fall by at least 20%. Five — Portugal, Austria, Bulgaria, Estonia, and Finland — saw it fall by more than 30%.
Coal was the sharpest story. In May 2023 C.E., coal covered just 10% of E.U. electricity generation — the lowest monthly share ever recorded. The Netherlands ran for 17 consecutive days with no coal use at all. Greece went 80 hours without burning any lignite on its grid.
These are not just statistical curiosities. They represent a structural shift. Despite a brief coal uptick in 2022 C.E. — when several countries extended plant lifetimes or reopened closed facilities after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted gas supplies — coal use in the first half of 2023 C.E. returned to its pre-pandemic downward trajectory. Wind and solar together exceeded fossil fuel generation across the entire E.U. in May, and surpassed 30% of total electricity production in both May and July — the first time that threshold had been crossed.
The demand question
Ember is clear that the fossil fuel decline was not driven entirely by clean energy growth. A significant share came from a fall in electricity demand itself — down 5% to 1,261 terawatt hours, the lowest level since at least 2008 C.E. for current member states.
High gas and electricity prices squeezed industrial output across Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Poland, and the Netherlands. Energy-intensive industries cut production by 15–20% in Germany alone. The International Energy Agency attributed two-thirds of the 2022 demand decline to non-weather factors, particularly this kind of industrial pullback.
Ember calls this “demand destruction” — a reduction that is neither sustainable nor desirable. If demand recovers, as it must for a fully electrified economy, the E.U. will need clean power ready to absorb it. That is the core challenge the first-half data lays bare.
Wind, solar, and the infrastructure gap
Solar continued its rapid expansion. Following record additions of 33 gigawatts in 2022 C.E., the pace held in the first half of 2023 C.E. Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands all posted strong gains. Ember notes this likely understates actual solar growth, since many countries do not capture behind-the-meter generation — rooftop systems that feed homes directly without passing through the wider grid.
Wind growth was slower. Rising turbine costs — up 38% over two years, according to consultancy Oliver Wyman — along with permitting delays and local opposition slowed deployment. Offshore wind added less than 2 gigawatts across the entire E.U. in the first six months. Policy changes in Poland and a push by the European Commission to cut permitting delays offered signs of movement, but the gap between ambition and installation remained real.
Grid infrastructure is also becoming a constraint. Negative electricity prices — where oversupply from renewables pushes prices below zero — grew more frequent. In Spain, 19% of behind-the-meter solar was curtailed in 2022 C.E., meaning the energy was simply wasted. Ember’s analysis is direct: without grid expansion, better storage, and streamlined permitting, Europe cannot unlock the full value of the renewable capacity it is building.
Nuclear and hydro: partial recoveries
Hydropower output rose 11% in the first half of 2023 C.E., helped by better rainfall after the severe drought of 2022 C.E. — a year that had hammered run-of-river plants across Italy, France, and Portugal. But Ember warns that consistent hydro output can no longer be relied upon as the climate shifts.
Nuclear generation fell 3.6% compared with the first half of 2022 C.E., primarily because of Germany’s phase-out, the closure of Belgium’s Tihange 2 plant, and ongoing maintenance issues with France’s fleet. French output improved in the second quarter — outperforming 2022 C.E. by 18% between April and June — and EDF forecast 300–330 TWh for the full year. Finland’s long-delayed Olkiluoto 3 plant began partially offsetting closures elsewhere. Still, European nuclear output is expected to remain below its historical average through the mid-2020s.
What comes next
The first half of 2023 C.E. showed that the structural decline of fossil fuels in European electricity is real and accelerating. But Ember’s central argument is that the bloc cannot reach its climate targets by relying on demand suppression. Europe needs more renewable capacity, better grids, and adequate storage — and it needs demand to grow as heating, transport, and industry electrify.
The path is clear enough. The pace remains the open question. As the European Council continues to navigate energy security alongside decarbonisation, the first-half data gives policymakers both encouragement and a concrete list of what still needs to change.
Read more
For more on this story, see: Carbon Brief
For more from Good News for Humankind, see:
- U.K. cancer death rates fall to their lowest level on record
- Renewables now make up at least 49% of global power capacity
- The Good News for Humankind archive on renewable energy
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